Research notes and updates from the team.
The IOD turned positive in September 2026 (DMI +0.51°C) after a neutral June–August. Models expect positive conditions to continue, peaking in November and weakening in December. Positive-phase odds are near 100% in October, 97% in November, and 74% in December, with neutral favored from January through April 2027.
Read more →The IOD was neutral in August 2026 (+0.2°C) but models forecast a shift to strongly positive conditions starting September, peaking through December 2026, then easing back to neutral by Jan–Mar 2027. This positive IOD is emerging alongside the exceptionally strong El Niño, a common co-occurrence pattern between the two climate modes.
Read more →In July 2026, the observed Dipole Mode Index was +0.11 °C, indicating neutral IOD conditions across the Indian Ocean. According to the CCSR/IRI’s criteria for defining positive and negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events, a positive IOD phase is defined when the DMI exceeds +0.4 °C, and a negative IOD when it falls below −0.4 °C.
Read more →In June 2026, the observed Dipole Mode Index was -0.46 °C, indicating negative IOD conditions across the Indian Ocean. According to the CCSR/IRI’s criteria for defining positive and negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events, a positive IOD phase is defined when the DMI exceeds +0.4 °C, and a negative IOD when it falls below −0.4 °C.
Read more →In May 2026, the observed Dipole Mode Index was -0.27 °C, indicating neutral IOD conditions across the Indian Ocean. According to the CCSR/IRI’s criteria for defining positive and negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events, a positive IOD phase is defined when the DMI exceeds +0.4 °C, and a negative IOD when it falls below −0.4 °C.
Read more →In April 2026, the observed Dipole Mode Index was +0.31 °C, indicating neutral IOD conditions across the Indian Ocean. According to the CCSR/IRI’s criteria for defining positive and negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events, a positive IOD phase is defined when the DMI exceeds +0.4 °C, and a negative IOD when it falls below −0.4 °C.
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