Category: IOD Forecast

Research notes and updates from the team.

April 2026 IOD Discussion

IOD Forecast

In March 2026, the observed Dipole Mode Index was +0.15, indicating neutral IOD conditions across the Indian Ocean. According to the CCSR/IRI’s criteria for defining positive and negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events, a positive IOD phase is defined when the DMI exceeds +0.4 °C, and a negative IOD when it falls below −0.4 °C.

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March 2026 IOD Discussion

IOD Forecast

In Feb 2026, the observed Dipole Mode Index was +0.25, indicating neutral IOD conditions across the Indian Ocean. According to the CCSR@NASA-GISS/IRI’s criteria for defining positive and negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events, a positive IOD phase is defined when the DMI exceeds +0.4 °C, and a negative IOD when it falls below −0.4 °C.

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February 2026 IOD Discussion

IOD Forecast

In Jan 2026, the observed Dipole Mode Index was near zero, indicating neutral IOD conditions across the Indian Ocean. According to the CCSR@NASA-GISS/IRI’s criteria for defining positive and negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events, a positive IOD phase is defined when the DMI exceeds +0.4 °C, and a negative IOD when it falls below −0.4 °C.

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January 2026 IOD Discussion

IOD Forecast

In December 2025, the observed Dipole Mode Index was –0.55 °C, indicating that negative IOD conditions persisted across the Indian Ocean. According to the CCSR@NASA-GISS/IRI’s criteria for defining positive and negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events, a positive IOD phase is defined when the DMI exceeds +0.4 °C, and a negative IOD when it falls below −0.4 °C.

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December 2025 IOD Discussion

IOD Forecast

In November 2025, the Dipole Mode Index measured –0.74 °C, signaling the continued persistence of negative IOD conditions across the Indian Ocean. According to the CCSR@NASA-GISS/IRI’s criteria for defining positive and negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events, a positive IOD phase is defined when the DMI exceeds +0.4 °C, and a negative IOD when it falls below −0.4 °C.

Read more →

November 2025 IOD Discussion

IOD Forecast

In October 2025, the Dipole Mode Index measured –0.87 °C, signaling the continued persistence of negative IOD conditions across the Indian Ocean. According to the CCSR@NASA-GISS/IRI’s criteria for defining positive and negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events, a positive IOD phase is defined when the DMI exceeds +0.4 °C, and a negative IOD when it falls below −0.4 °C.

Read more →