Category: IOD Forecast

October 2025 IOD Discussion

The Dipole Mode Index for the month of September was -0.71 °C, indicative of the presence of negative IOD conditions in the Indian Ocean. According to the CCSR@NASA-GISS/IRI’s criteria for defining positive and negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events, a positive IOD is classified when the DMI exceeds +0.4 °C, and a negative IOD when it falls below −0.4 °C.

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September 2025 IOD Discussion

The forecast shows a strong model consensus toward a negative IOD event during the boreal fall and early winter. For September and October, the probability of a negative IOD is near or at 100%. This high confidence persists through November, where the probability remains above 75%, while neutral and positive phases are comparatively unlikely.

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