Category: Seasonal Forecast

Research notes and updates from the team.

September 2023 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

In August 2023, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean were well above the El Niño threshold (the NINO3.4 index value in August 2023 was +1.3 °C). Weekly-averaged SST anomalies in the NINO3.4 region have warmed further and reached +1.6 °C during the week centered on 06 Sep 2023.

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August 2023 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

In July 2023, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean were well above the El Niño threshold (the NINO3.4 index value in July 2023 was +1.07 °C). Weekly-averaged SST anomalies in the NINO3.4 region have warmed further and reached +1.2 °C during the week centered on 09 Aug 2023.

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July 2023 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

In June 2023, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean were well above the El Niño threshold (the NINO3.4 index value in June 2023 was +0.88 °C). Weekly-averaged SST anomalies in the NINO3.4 region have warmed further and reached +1.0 °C during the week centered on 05 July 2023.

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June 2023 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

In May 2023, equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean were close to the borderline of El Niño (the NINO3.4 index value in May 2023 was +0.47 °C). The current SST anomalies in the region have reached the El Niño threshold on a weekly basis (as of the week of 07 Jun, the NINO3.4 index was +0.9 °C).

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May 2023 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

In April 2023, equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean remained at an ENSO-neutral level (the NINO3.4 index value in April 2023 was +0.19 °C). The current SST anomalies in the region have reached the El Niño threshold on a weekly basis (as of the week of 10 May, the NINO3.4 index was 0.5 °C).

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April 2023 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

In March 2023, equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean remained at an ENSO-neutral level (the NINO3.4 index value in March 2023 was -0.01 °C). Weekly SST anomalies in the same region have remained very small for the last four weeks (as of the week of 05 April, the NINO3.4 index was 0.0 °C).

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