Category: Seasonal Forecast

Research notes and updates from the team.

March 2024 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

During February 2024, there was a notable decline in the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) within the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean compared to the preceding month, leading to a NINO3.4 anomaly index value of +1.53 °C. The weekly-averaged SST anomalies in the NINO3.4 region were +1.40 °C for the week centered on March 06, 2024.

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February 2024 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

In January 2024, the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean experienced a decrease of approximately 0.25 degrees Celsius compared to the previous month. This resulted in the NINO3.4 index reaching +1.78 °C. The weekly-averaged SST anomalies in the NINO3.4 region were +1.70 °C for the week centered on February 07, 2024.

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January 2024 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

During December 2023, the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean exceeded the threshold for a strong El Niño event, with the NINO3.4 index reaching +1.99 °C. The weekly-averaged SST anomalies in the NINO3.4 region remained at +1.90 °C for the week centered on January 03, 2024.

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December 2023 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

During November 2023, the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean exceeded the threshold for a strong El Niño event, with the NINO3.4 index reaching +1.90 °C. The weekly-averaged SST anomalies in the NINO3.4 region remained at +1.90 °C for the week centered on December 6, 2023.

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November 2023 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

In October 2023, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean were well above the El Niño threshold (the NINO3.4 index value in October 2023 was +1.59 °C), while the weekly-averaged SST anomalies in the NINO3.4 region was +1.80 °C during the week centered on 08 Nov 2023.

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October 2023 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

In September 2023, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean were well above the El Niño threshold (the NINO3.4 index value in September 2023 was +1.53 °C), while the weekly-averaged SST anomalies in the NINO3.4 region was +1.5 °C during the week centered on 04 Oct 2023.

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