Category: Seasonal Forecast

Research notes and updates from the team.

September 2022 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

In August 2022, the equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern tropical Pacific Ocean remained cooler than normal, and were consistent with weak La Niña conditions (NINO3.4 index value in August 2022 was -0.96).

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August 2022 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

In July 2022, the equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern tropical Pacific Ocean remained consistent with weak La Niña conditions (NINO3.4 index value in July 2022 was -0.68). According to the early-August CPC ENSO forecast, La Niña is likely to persist until boreal winter 2022-23 with 60% probabilities, which would be the first triple-dip event of the 21st century.

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July 2022 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

In June 2022, the equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern tropical Pacific Ocean remained consistent with weak La Niña conditions (NINO3.4 index value in June 2022 was -0.68). In the early-July CPC/IRI ENSO forecast, La Niña is likely to persist during the rest of the boreal summer, fall and early winter with probabilities ranging from 60 to 66%.

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June 2022 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

In May 2022, the equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern tropical Pacific Ocean were below average, and tropical Pacific atmosphere remained consistent with La Niña conditions. The recent observed oceanic and atmospheric anomalies across the tropical Pacific have, however, shown some weakness.

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May 2022 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

In April 2022, the equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern tropical Pacific Ocean were below average, and tropical Pacific atmosphere remained consistent with La Niña conditions.

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April 2022 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

In March 2022, the equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern tropical Pacific Ocean were below average and the tropical Pacific atmosphere remained consistent with La Niña conditions.

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