Research notes and updates from the team.
In February 2022, the equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the east-central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean were below average, and tropical Pacific atmosphere remained consistent with La Niña conditions.
Read more →In January 2022, La Niña conditions continued with the sea surface temperatures (SST) in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean remaining cooler than average. The early February CPC/IRI ENSO forecast calls for a continuation of the weak La Niña until Northern Hemisphere spring, with moderate probability (77% chance during Mar-May 2022).
Read more →It is with great sadness that we share the news that Dr. Lisa Goddard died on January 13 after a long battle with cancer. Lisa had been at IRI since its founding, and served as Director from 2012-2020.
Read more →Note: The IRI seasonal forecasts of precipitation and temperature issued this month are based on the NCEP-CFSv2, CanSIPS-IC3, COLA-RSMAS-CCSM4, and GFDL-SPEAR models. Starting from Dec 2021, a new CanSIPS-IC3 model replacing the CanSIPSv2 model has been used in NMME seasonal forecasts. The climatological base period for normal is 1991-2020.
Read more →La Niña strengthened during October, with below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) evident across most of the equatorial Pacific. The early November CPC/IRI SST forecast in the equatorial Pacific indicates very high probabilities (~ 90%) of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere winter, but waning gradually to the ENSO-neutral state after February 2022.
Read more →The oceanic and atmospheric patterns in the tropical Pacific during September are consistent with La Niña. The early October CPC/IRI sea surface temperature (SST) forecast in the eastern equatorial Pacific indicates high probabilities of La Niña developing during the upcoming winter, and a La Niña advisory has been issued accordingly.
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