Discussions

Research notes and updates from the team.

February 2025 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

During January 2025, negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies intensified slightly over the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, leading to a NINO3.4 anomaly index value of -0.71 °C. However, the weekly-averaged SST anomalies in the NINO3.4 region were -0.6 °C for the week centered on Feb 05, 2025. This indicates the ongoing La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

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January 2025 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region during the Oct-Dec 2024 season was -0.35 °C, and for the month of December 2024 it was -0.62 °C. The most recent weekly average (week centered on 15 January 2025) of the NINO3.4 index was -0.6 °C. The latest monthly and weekly values suggest that the tropical Pacific has now entered a La Niña state.

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January 2025 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

During December 2024, negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies intensified over the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, leading to a NINO3.4 anomaly index value of -0.62 °C. The weekly-averaged SST anomalies in the NINO3.4 region were -0.7 °C for the week centered on Jan 08, 2025. This indicates onset of La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

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December 2024 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region during the Sep-Nov 2024 season was -0.19 °C, and for the month of November 2024 it was -0.14 °C. The most recent weekly average (week centered on 11 December 2024) of the NINO3.4 index was -0.6 °C. The seasonal and monthly values indicate that the tropical Pacific is in an ongoing ENSO-neutral state.

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December 2024 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

During November 2024, slightly negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies persisted over the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, leading to a NINO3.4 anomaly index value of -0.14 °C. The weekly-averaged SST anomalies in the NINO3.4 region were -0.6 °C for the week centered on Dec 11, 2024. This indicates an ongoing ENSO-neutral state in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

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November 2024 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region during the Aug-Oct 2024 season was -0.17 °C, and for the month of October 2024 it was -0.28 °C. The most recent weekly average (week centered on 13 November 2024) of the NINO3.4 index was +0.0 °C. These values indicate that the tropical Pacific is currently in an ongoing ENSO-neutral state.

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