Discussions

Research notes and updates from the team.

May 2024 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

During April 2024, there was a further decline in the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) within the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean compared to the preceding month, leading to a NINO3.4 anomaly index value of +0.81 °C. The weekly-averaged SST anomalies in the NINO3.4 region were +0.30 °C for the week centered on May 08, 2024.

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April 2024 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly for NINO3.4 during the Jan-Mar 2023 season was +1.52 °C, and for the month of March 2024 it was +1.24 °C. The most recent weekly (week centered on 10 April 2024) anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was +0.90 °C, indicating that the tropical Pacific is experiencing gradually weakening El Niño conditions.

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April 2024 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

During March 2024, there was a further decline in the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) within the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean compared to the preceding month, leading to a NINO3.4 anomaly index value of +1.24 °C. The weekly-averaged SST anomalies in the NINO3.4 region were +0.90 °C for the week centered on April 10, 2024.

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March 2024 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly for NINO3.4 during the Dec-Feb 2023 season was +1.77 °C, and for the month of February 2024 it was +1.53 °C. The most recent weekly (week centered on 13 March 2024) anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was +1.10 °C, indicating that the tropical Pacific is experiencing a gradually declining El Niño conditions.

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March 2024 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

During February 2024, there was a notable decline in the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) within the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean compared to the preceding month, leading to a NINO3.4 anomaly index value of +1.53 °C. The weekly-averaged SST anomalies in the NINO3.4 region were +1.40 °C for the week centered on March 06, 2024.

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February 2024 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly for NINO3.4 during the Nov-Jan 2023 season was +1.89 °C, and for the month of Jan 2024 it was +1.78 °C. The most recent weekly (week centered on 14 Feb 2024) anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was +1.50 °C, indicating that the tropical Pacific is experiencing moderate-strong El Niño conditions but which have started to decline.

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