Discussions

Research notes and updates from the team.

February 2024 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

In January 2024, the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean experienced a decrease of approximately 0.25 degrees Celsius compared to the previous month. This resulted in the NINO3.4 index reaching +1.78 °C. The weekly-averaged SST anomalies in the NINO3.4 region were +1.70 °C for the week centered on February 07, 2024.

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January 2024 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly for NINO3.4 during the Oct-Dec 2023 season was +1.83 °C, and for the month of Dec 2023 it was +1.99 °C. The most recent weekly (10 Jan 2024) anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was +1.90 °C, indicating that the tropical Pacific is experiencing strong El Niño conditions.

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January 2024 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

During December 2023, the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean exceeded the threshold for a strong El Niño event, with the NINO3.4 index reaching +1.99 °C. The weekly-averaged SST anomalies in the NINO3.4 region remained at +1.90 °C for the week centered on January 03, 2024.

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December 2023 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly for NINO3.4 during the Sep-Nov 2023 season was +1.67 °C, and for the month of Nov 2023 it was +1.90 °C. The most recent weekly (13 Dec 2023) anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was +2.0 °C, indicating that the tropical Pacific is still experiencing strong El Niño conditions.

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December 2023 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

During November 2023, the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean exceeded the threshold for a strong El Niño event, with the NINO3.4 index reaching +1.90 °C. The weekly-averaged SST anomalies in the NINO3.4 region remained at +1.90 °C for the week centered on December 6, 2023.

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November 2023 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly for NINO3.4 during the Aug-Oct 2023 season was +1.47 °C, and for the month of Oct 2023 it was +1.59 °C. The most recent weekly (15 Nov 2023) anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was +1.90 °C, indicating that the tropical Pacific is experiencing strong El Niño conditions.

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