Discussions

Research notes and updates from the team.

November 2023 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

In October 2023, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean were well above the El Niño threshold (the NINO3.4 index value in October 2023 was +1.59 °C), while the weekly-averaged SST anomalies in the NINO3.4 region was +1.80 °C during the week centered on 08 Nov 2023.

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October 2023 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly for NINO3.4 during the Jul-Sep 2023 season was +1.30 °C, and for the month of Sep 2023 it was +1.53 °C. The most recent weekly (11 Oct 2023) anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was +1.50 °C, suggesting that the tropical Pacific is experiencing moderate strength El Niño conditions.

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October 2023 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

In September 2023, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean were well above the El Niño threshold (the NINO3.4 index value in September 2023 was +1.53 °C), while the weekly-averaged SST anomalies in the NINO3.4 region was +1.5 °C during the week centered on 04 Oct 2023.

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September 2023 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly for NINO3.4 during the Jun-Aug 2023 season was +1.08 °C, and for the month of Aug 2023 it was +1.30 °C. The most recent weekly (13 Sep 2023) anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was +1.6 °C, suggesting that the tropical Pacific is experiencing moderate strength El Niño conditions.

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September 2023 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

In August 2023, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean were well above the El Niño threshold (the NINO3.4 index value in August 2023 was +1.3 °C). Weekly-averaged SST anomalies in the NINO3.4 region have warmed further and reached +1.6 °C during the week centered on 06 Sep 2023.

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August 2023 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly for NINO3.4 during the May-Jul 2023 season was +0.81 °C, and for the month of Jul 2023 it was +1.07 °C. The most recent weekly (09 Aug 2023) anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was +1.2 °C, suggesting that the tropical Pacific is experiencing a moderate strength El Niño conditions.

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