Discussions

Research notes and updates from the team.

August 2023 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

In July 2023, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean were well above the El Niño threshold (the NINO3.4 index value in July 2023 was +1.07 °C). Weekly-averaged SST anomalies in the NINO3.4 region have warmed further and reached +1.2 °C during the week centered on 09 Aug 2023.

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July 2023 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly for NINO3.4 during the Apr-Jun 2023 season was +0.51 °C, and for the month of Jun 2023 it was +0.88 °C. The most recent weekly (12 Jul 2023) anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was +1.1 °C, suggesting that the tropical Pacific is experiencing moderate strength El Niño conditions.

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July 2023 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

In June 2023, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean were well above the El Niño threshold (the NINO3.4 index value in June 2023 was +0.88 °C). Weekly-averaged SST anomalies in the NINO3.4 region have warmed further and reached +1.0 °C during the week centered on 05 July 2023.

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June 2023 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly for NINO3.4 during the Mar-May 2023 season was +0.22 °C, and for the month of May 2023 it was +0.47 °C. The most recent weekly (07 Jun 2023) anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was +0.9 °C, strongly suggesting that the tropical Pacific is now experiencing El Niño conditions.

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June 2023 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

In May 2023, equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean were close to the borderline of El Niño (the NINO3.4 index value in May 2023 was +0.47 °C). The current SST anomalies in the region have reached the El Niño threshold on a weekly basis (as of the week of 07 Jun, the NINO3.4 index was +0.9 °C).

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May 2023 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly for NINO3.4 during the Feb-Apr 2023 season was -0.08 °C, and for the month of April 2023 it was +0.19 °C. The most recent weekly (10 May 2023) anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was 0.5 °C, indicating that the tropical Pacific is experiencing a developing El Niño conditions.

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