Discussions

Research notes and updates from the team.

May 2023 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

In April 2023, equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean remained at an ENSO-neutral level (the NINO3.4 index value in April 2023 was +0.19 °C). The current SST anomalies in the region have reached the El Niño threshold on a weekly basis (as of the week of 10 May, the NINO3.4 index was 0.5 °C).

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April 2023 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly for NINO3.4 during the Jan-Mar 2023 season was -0.38 °C, and for the month of March 2023 it was -0.01 °C. The most recent weekly (12 Apr 2023) anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was 0.1 °C, indicating that the tropical Pacific is experiencing ENSO-neutral conditions.

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April 2023 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

In March 2023, equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean remained at an ENSO-neutral level (the NINO3.4 index value in March 2023 was -0.01 °C). Weekly SST anomalies in the same region have remained very small for the last four weeks (as of the week of 05 April, the NINO3.4 index was 0.0 °C).

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March 2023 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly for NINO3.4 during the Dec-Feb 2022 season was -0.65 °C, and for the month of February 2023 it was -0.44 °C. The most recent weekly (15 Mar 2023) anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was 0.1 °C, indicating termination of protracted triple-Dip La Niña. The tropical Pacific is now experiencing ENSO-neutral conditions.

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March 2023 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

In February 2023, equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern Pacific Ocean returned to an ENSO-neutral state (the NINO3.4 index value in February 2023 was -0.44 °C). The most recent weekly SST anomalies for the tropical Pacific indicate further warming (as of the week of 08 March, the NINO3.4 index was -0.1 °C).

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February 2023 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly for NINO3.4 during the Nov-Jan 2022 season was -0.82 °C, and for the month of January 2023 it was -0.69 °C. The most recent weekly (15 Feb 2023) anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was -0.5 °C, indicating weakened and now borderline La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific.

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