Discussions

Research notes and updates from the team.

November 2022 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

In October 2022, the equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern tropical Pacific Ocean remained cooler than normal, exhibiting persistent La Niña conditions (NINO3.4 index value in October 2022 was -1.03C).

Read more →

October 2022 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly for NINO3.4 during the Jun-Aug season was -0.76 °C, and for the month of August it was -0.98 °C. The most recent weekly (14 Sep 2022) anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was -0.9 °C, indicating persistent weak La Niña conditions. The IRI’s definition of El Niño, like NOAA/Climate Prediction Center’s, requires that the SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region (5S-5N; 170W-120W) exceed 0.5 °C.

Read more →

October 2022 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

In September 2022, the equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern tropical Pacific Ocean remained cooler than normal, exhibiting persistent La Niña conditions (NINO3.4 index value in September 2022 was -1.09).

Read more →

September 2022 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly for NINO3.4 during the Jun-Aug season was -0.76 °C, and for the month of August it was -0.98 °C. The most recent weekly (14 Sep 2022) anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was -0.9 °C, indicating persistent weak La Niña conditions. The IRI’s definition of El Niño, like NOAA/Climate Prediction Center’s, requires that the SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region (5S-5N; 170W-120W) exceed 0.5 °C.

Read more →

September 2022 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

In August 2022, the equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern tropical Pacific Ocean remained cooler than normal, and were consistent with weak La Niña conditions (NINO3.4 index value in August 2022 was -0.96).

Read more →

August 2022 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly for NINO3.4 during the May-June-July season was -0.89 °C, and for the month of July it was -0.78 °C. The most recent weekly (10 Aug 2022) anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was -1.1 °C, indicating a strengthening of ongoing La Niña conditions.

Read more →