Research notes and updates from the team.
In July 2026, the observed Dipole Mode Index was +0.11 °C, indicating neutral IOD conditions across the Indian Ocean. According to the CCSR/IRI’s criteria for defining positive and negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events, a positive IOD phase is defined when the DMI exceeds +0.4 °C, and a negative IOD when it falls below −0.4 °C.
Read more →The 2026 El Niño event continues to intensify across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. The traditional Niño 3.4 index shows a clear and sustained increase, with the most recent seasonal mean reaching +1.51 °C during May–July 2026 and the July monthly value increasing to +2.03 °C. The latest weekly Niño 3.4 index, centered on August 12, 2026, reached +2.7 °C.
Read more →During July 2026, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies increased further across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The monthly Niño 3.4 index reached +2.03 °C, marking the transition of the ongoing El Niño event into the very strong category.
Read more →El Niño conditions are strengthening across the tropical Pacific, with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region showing a steady upward trend. The observed SST anomaly averaged +0.98 °C during April–June 2026 and increased to +1.55 °C in June 2026. The latest weekly Niño 3.4 index, centered on July 15, 2026, climbed further to +2.1 °C.
Read more →In June 2026, the observed Dipole Mode Index was -0.46 °C, indicating negative IOD conditions across the Indian Ocean. According to the CCSR/IRI’s criteria for defining positive and negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events, a positive IOD phase is defined when the DMI exceeds +0.4 °C, and a negative IOD when it falls below −0.4 °C.
Read more →During June 2026, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies increased further across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, with the monthly Niño 3.4 index reaching +1.55 °C.
Read more →