Research notes and updates from the team.
El Niño conditions are strengthening across the tropical Pacific, with SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region showing a steady upward trend. The observed SST anomaly reached +0.48 °C during March–May 2026 and increased to +0.94 °C in May 2026. The latest weekly Niño 3.4 index, centered on June 17, 2026, climbed further to +1.7 °C.
Read more →In May 2026, the observed Dipole Mode Index was -0.27 °C, indicating neutral IOD conditions across the Indian Ocean. According to the CCSR/IRI’s criteria for defining positive and negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events, a positive IOD phase is defined when the DMI exceeds +0.4 °C, and a negative IOD when it falls below −0.4 °C.
Read more →During May 2026, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies increased further across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, with the monthly Niño 3.4 index reaching +0.94 °C.
Read more →In April 2026, the observed Dipole Mode Index was +0.31 °C, indicating neutral IOD conditions across the Indian Ocean. According to the CCSR/IRI’s criteria for defining positive and negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events, a positive IOD phase is defined when the DMI exceeds +0.4 °C, and a negative IOD when it falls below −0.4 °C.
Read more →The observed sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was +0.1 °C during the February–April 2026 season, increasing to +0.47 °C in April 2026. The latest weekly NINO3.4 index, centered on May 13, 2026, reached +0.9 °C.
Read more →During April 2026, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies rapidly warmed across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, with the monthly Niño 3.4 index reaching 0.47 °C. Over the past four weekly Niño 3.4 index observations (15 April to 06 May), values ranged from +0.5 °C to +0.9 °C, indicating that short-term conditions remained consistently above the El Niño threshold.
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