Research notes and updates from the team.
The observed SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region during the Jan–Mar 2026 season was -0.25 °C, and for March 2026, it was +0.03 °C. The most recent weekly average (week centered on Apr 15, 2026) of the NINO3.4 index was +0.5 °C. These values indicate that Pacific sea-surface temperatures are in an ENSO-neutral state and are beginning to develop into El Niño.
Read more →In March 2026, the observed Dipole Mode Index was +0.15, indicating neutral IOD conditions across the Indian Ocean. According to the CCSR/IRI’s criteria for defining positive and negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events, a positive IOD phase is defined when the DMI exceeds +0.4 °C, and a negative IOD when it falls below −0.4 °C.
Read more →During March 2026, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies weakened further and settled within the ENSO-neutral category across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, with the monthly Niño 3.4 index at 0.03 °C. Weekly averaged SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region were 0.2 °C for the week centered on April 08, 2026, indicating the persistence of values within the ENSO-neutral range.
Read more →In Feb 2026, the observed Dipole Mode Index was +0.25, indicating neutral IOD conditions across the Indian Ocean. According to the CCSR@NASA-GISS/IRI’s criteria for defining positive and negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events, a positive IOD phase is defined when the DMI exceeds +0.4 °C, and a negative IOD when it falls below −0.4 °C.
Read more →The observed SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region during the Dec–Feb 2026 season was -0.45 °C, and for February 2026, it was -0.20 °C. The most recent weekly average (week centered on March 11, 2026) of the NINO3.4 index was -0.0 °C. These values indicate that Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies have weakened to ENSO-neutral levels.
Read more →During February 2026, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies weakened further and settled within the ENSO-neutral category across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, with the monthly Niño 3.4 index at −0.20 °C. Weekly averaged SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region were −0.0 °C for the week centered on March 11, 2026, indicating the persistence of values within the ENSO-neutral range.
Read more →