August 2021 Climate Forecast Discussion
The IRI NMME seasonal forecast for Aug 2021 uses 3 models, CanSIPSv2, NCEP-CFSv2, and COLA-RSMAS-CCSM4.
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Research notes and updates from the team.
July 2021 ENSO Discussion
Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv5. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv5 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →July 2021 Climate Forecast Discussion
Note: The IRI seasonal forecasts issued this month are based on the NCEP-CFSv2, CanSIPsv2, and COLA-RSMAS-CCSM4 models.
Read more →June 2021 ENSO Discussion
Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv5. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv5 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →June 2021 Climate Forecast Discussion
The sea surface temperature (SST) forecast indicates that the tropical Pacific is currently ENSO-neutral and will likely remain so through the boreal summer.
Read more →May 2021 ENSO Discussion
Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv5. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv5 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
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