Research notes and updates from the team.
The SST forecast indicates that the La Niña event has transitioned to ENSO-neutral and will likely remain so through the boreal summer. This collection of models suggests a re-emergence of cool SST anomalies in boreal fall that are just cool enough to meet the La Niña condition threshold of -0.5 C below average.
Read more →Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv5. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv5 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →Note: The IRI seasonal forecasts issued this month are based on the NCEP-CFSv2, CanSIPsv2, and COLA-RSMAS-CCSM4 models.
Read more →Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv5. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv5 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →The sea surface temperature SST forecast is for mild La Nina conditions to continue into boreal spring. SST forecasts in the Atlantic Ocean indicate that the South Tropical Atlantic is likely to remain anomalously cool through boreal spring, while the North Tropical Atlantic is likely to be warmer than normal through boreal summer.
Read more →Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv5. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv5 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →