Research notes and updates from the team.
The sea surface temperature (SST) forecast forecast is for La Nina conditions to continue into the spring, and then likely transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions. The model predictions show a broad range of outcomes; however, and some models indicate that La Nina conditions will re-emerge in the second half of the year.
Read more →Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv5. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv5 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →The sea surface temperature (SST) forecast is for La Nina conditions to continue through winter and transition to ENSO-neutral conditions in late spring. Strong SST anomalies are absent from the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans, although weakly warm SSTs are forecast by most models to persist in the tropical North Atlantic.
Read more →Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv5. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv5 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →The SST forecast is for La Nina conditions to continue through boreal winter, weakening through the spring and early summer. The eastern Indian Ocean is presently warm but is forecast to relax towards climatological temperatures in the spring.
Read more →Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv5. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv5 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
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