Research notes and updates from the team.
The SST forecast is for moderate to strong La Nina conditions to continue through winter, likely weakening during the spring but persisting as a weak La Nina. Warm SSTs in the North and South Pacific, southeast Indian Ocean, and the North and South Atlantic are forecast to persist through the spring while the tropical Atlantic Ocean remains near normal.
Read more →Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv5. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv5 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →The SST forecast is for moderate La Niña conditions to persist through the fall and early winter, likely weakening as the spring progresses. Warm SSTs in the North Pacific and North Atlantic are forecast to persist through the spring while the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans remain near normal.
Read more →Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv5. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv5 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →The SST forecast is for weak-to-moderate La Niña conditions to continue in the central and eastern tropical Pacific through JFM, accompanied by warm SSTs in the North Pacific and North Atlantic.
Read more →Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
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