August 2020 Climate Forecast Discussion
The SST forecast indicates weak-moderate La Niña conditions in the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean for all four forecast periods of Sep-Nov through Dec-Feb, with a slight weakening in Dec-Feb.
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Research notes and updates from the team.
July 2020 ENSO Discussion
Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →July 2020 Climate Forecast Discussion
An enhanced probability for below-normal precipitation is forecast in part of Chile and Argentina for Aug-Oct, Sep-Nov, and Oct-Dec. Below-normal is also favored over parts of eastern/southern Africa for all four forecast seasons (Aug-Oct through Nov-Jan). In the later seasons (Oct-Dec and Nov-Jan), the tendency toward dryer than normal conditions reaches parts of the southern U.S.
Read more →June 2020 ENSO Discussion
Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →June 2020 Climate Forecast Discussion
The SST forecast shows weak La Niña conditions in the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean for all of the four forecast periods of Jul-Sep through Oct-Dec. Through the forecast periods, the eastern three-quarters of the tropical Pacific shows negative anomalies while the far west Pacific shows positive anomalies with the contrast becoming stronger following Jul-Sep.
Read more →May 2020 ENSO Discussion
Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
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