Research notes and updates from the team.
The SST forecast shows neutral ENSO conditions in the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean for Jun-Aug, with a cooling tendency during those months as well as later on, and thus reaching a borderline La Nina level by Sep-Nov. Through the forecast periods, the eastern one-third of the tropical Pacific is forecast to develop a stronger negative anomaly than the central Pacific.
Read more →Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →The SST forecast shows warm-neutral ENSO conditions in the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean for May, cooling to average for June and July, and cooling further to a borderline La Nina level by Aug-Oct.
Read more →Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →The SST forecast shows warm-neutral ENSO conditions in the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean for March and April, cooling to average for May and June, and cooling further to a borderline or weak La Nina level by July and August.
Read more →Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →