Research notes and updates from the team.
The SST forecast shows borderline weak El Nino conditions, with Nino3.4 SST near 0.5ºC for January and early February, but the SST is expected to slowly return to neutral between February and the early summer.
Read more →Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →The SST forecast shows mainly neutral ENSO conditions (-0.5 to 0.5ºC in the Nino3.4 SST index) for Feb-Apr through May-Jul, starting from near-El Nino levels for Feb-Apr and progressively cooling to weak La Nina conditions by May-Jul.
Read more →Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →The SST forecast shows neutral ENSO conditions (-0.5 to 0.5ºC in the Nino3.4 SST index) for Jan-Mar through Apr-Jun. Near-average SST is forecast for the eastern tropical Pacific, cooling to slightly below average by Apr-Jun; above-average SST is forecast for the central and west-central tropical Pacific for Jan-Mar and Feb-Apr, cooling toward average by Apr-Jun.
Read more →Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →