Research notes and updates from the team.
The SST forecast shows neutral ENSO conditions (-0.5 to 0.5ºC in the Nino3.4 SST index) for Dec-Feb through Mar-May. Near-average SST is forecast for the eastern tropical Pacific, progressively cooling to below average by Mar-May; above-average SST is forecast for the central and west-central tropical Pacific, cooling to average by Mar-May.
Read more →Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →The SST forecast shows very slightly warmish, but neutral ENSO conditions (-0.5 to 0.5ºC in the Nino3.4 SST index) for Nov-Jan through Feb-Apr. Near-average or very slightly below-average SST is forecast for the eastern tropical Pacific, while above-average SST is forecast for the west-central and western tropical Pacific for all four forecast seasons.
Read more →Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →The SST forecast shows slightly warmish, but neutral ENSO conditions (-0.5 to 0.5ºC in the Nino3.4 SST index) for Oct-Dec through Jan-Mar. Slightly below-average SST is forecast for the eastern tropical Pacific, while above-average SST is forecast for the central and much of the western tropical Pacific for all four forecast seasons.
Read more →Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →