Research notes and updates from the team.
The SST forecast shows neutral ENSO conditions (-0.5 to 0.5ºC in the Nino3.4 SST index) for Sep-Nov through Dec-Feb. Below-average SST is forecast for the eastern tropical Pacific, while above-average SST is forecast for the central and west-central tropical Pacific for all four forecast seasons.
Read more →Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →The SST forecast shows neutral ENSO conditions (-0.5 to 0.5ºC in the Nino3.4 SST index) for Aug-Oct through Nov-Jan. Below-average SST is forecast for the eastern tropical Pacific, while above-average SST is forecast for the west-central and western tropical Pacific, for Aug-Oct through Oct-Dec.
Read more →Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →The SST forecast shows weak El Nino conditions (0.5 - 1.0ºC for the Nino3.4 SST index) for Jul-Sep through Oct-Dec. Much of the extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SSTs, as well as the SSTs in the western Indian Ocean and parts of the middle and high latitude south Pacific, are predicted to be above-average during most of the four forecast seasons.
Read more →Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →