May 2019 Climate Forecast Discussion
The SST forecast shows weak El Nino conditions (0.5 - 1.0ºC for the Nino3.4 SST index) for Jun-Aug through Sep-Nov, very slowly weakening during the forecast period.
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Research notes and updates from the team.
April 2019 ENSO Discussion
Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →April 2019 Climate Forecast Discussion
The SST forecast shows weak to moderate El Nino conditions (approximately 1.0ºC for the Nino3.4 SST index) for May-Jul, declining to weak conditions (0.5 - 1.0ºC) from Jun-Aug through Aug-Oct.
Read more →March 2019 ENSO Discussion
Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →March 2019 Climate Forecast Discussion
The SST forecast shows weak to moderate El Nino conditions (approximately 1.0ºC for the Nino3.4 SST index) from Apr-Jun through Jul-Sep. Much of the extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SSTs, as well as the SSTs in much of the Indian Ocean and parts of the middle and high latitude south Pacific, are predicted to be above-average during most of the four forecast seasons.
Read more →February 2019 ENSO Discussion
Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
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