February 2019 Climate Forecast Discussion
The SST forecast shows weak El Nino conditions (>0.5ºC and <1.0ºC for the Nino3.4 SST index) from Mar-May through May-Jul, weakening to a borderline El Nino level for Jun-Aug.
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Research notes and updates from the team.
January 2019 ENSO Discussion
Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →January 2019 Climate Forecast Discussion
The SST forecast shows weak El Nino conditions (>0.5ºC and <1.0ºC for the Nino3.4 SST index) from Feb-Apr through Apr-Jun, becoming warm-neutral for May-Jul.
Read more →December 2018 ENSO Discussion
Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →December 2018 Climate Forecast Discussion
The SST forecast shows moderate El Nino conditions (>1.0ºC and <1.5ºC for the Nino3.4 SST index) during Jan-Mar and Feb-Apr, becoming weak (>0.5ºC and <1.0ºC) for Mar-May and Apr-Jun.
Read more →November 2018 ENSO Discussion
Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
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