August 2018 Climate Forecast Discussion
The SST forecast shows weak El Nino conditions developing for the initial Sep-Nov season, intensifying to moderate strength (>1.0C in the Nino3.4 region) by Nov-Jan and Dec-Feb.
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Research notes and updates from the team.
July 2018 ENSO Discussion
Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →July 2018 Climate Forecast Discussion
The SST forecast shows weak El Nino conditions developing for the initial Aug-Oct season, intensifying to moderate strength (>1.0C in the Nino3.4 region) by Oct-Dec and Nov-Jan. Much of the subtropical and extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SST, as well as the SST in much of the mid-latitude Southern Hemisphere, are predicted to be above-average during all four forecast seasons.
Read more →June 2018 ENSO Discussion
Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →June 2018 Climate Forecast Discussion
The SST forecast shows weak El Nino conditions developing for the initial Jul-Sep season, slowly intensifying to moderate strength (>1.0C in the Nino3.4 region) by Oct-Dec. Much of the subtropical and extratropical North Atlantic, and the North Pacific SST, as well as the SST in much of the mid-latitude Southern Hemisphere, are predicted to be above average during all four forecast seasons.
Read more →May 2018 ENSO Discussion
Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
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