Research notes and updates from the team.
The SST forecast shows neutral ENSO conditions for the initial Jun-Aug and Jul-Sep seasons, then transitioning to warmer conditions, reaching a borderline or weak El Nino level by Sep-Nov. The remnants of the ended La Nina are expected to persist weakly just south of the equator during the Jun-Aug and Jul-Sep seasons.
Read more →Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →The SST forecast shows neutral ENSO conditions for the initial May-Jul season, transitioning to progressively warmer conditions with increasing lead time, reaching a borderline or weak El Nino level by Aug-Oct.
Read more →Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →The SST forecast shows neutral ENSO conditions for all four forecast seasons from Apr-Jun through Jul-Sep, but leaning toward cool during Apr-Jun and May-Jul and leaning warm during Jun-Aug and especially Jul-Sep.
Read more →Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →