February 2018 Climate Forecast Discussion
The SST forecast shows borderline La Nina conditions for Mar-May, becoming ENSO-neutral for Apr-Jun through Jun-Aug but leaning toward warm-neutral conditions for Jun-Aug.
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Research notes and updates from the team.
January 2018 ENSO Discussion
Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →January 2018 Climate Forecast Discussion
The SST forecast shows moderate La Nina conditions for Feb-Apr, becoming weak for Mar-May and transitioning to neutral for Apr-Jun and May-Jul.
Read more →December 2017 ENSO Discussion
Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →December 2017 Climate Forecast Discussion
The SST forecast shows moderate La Nina conditions for Jan-Mar and Feb-Apr, becoming weak for Mar-May and cool-neutral by Apr-Jun.
Read more →November 2017 ENSO Discussion
Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
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