Research notes and updates from the team.
The SST forecast shows moderate La Nina conditions for Dec-Feb and Jan-Mar, becoming weak for Feb-Apr and neutral by Mar-May. Most of the subtropical and extratropical North Pacific SST and the SST in many of the other extratropical regions is predicted to be above average during all four forecast seasons.
Read more →Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →The SST forecast shows weak La Nina conditions for Nov-Jan through Jan-Mar, weakening to neutral by Feb-Apr. Most of the subtropical North Pacific SST and the SST in many of the other extratropical regions is predicted to be above average during all four forecast seasons. A slightly positive Indian Ocean Dipole is predicted for Nov-Jan, weakening for the later seasons.
Read more →Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →The SST forecast shows weak La Nina conditions for Oct-Dec through Jan-Mar, weakening slightly for Jan-Mar. The subtropical North Pacific SST and the SST in many of the other extratropical regions are predicted to be above average during all four forecast seasons. A slightly positive Indian Ocean Dipole is predicted for Oct-Dec through Dec-Feb, weakening for the later seasons.
Read more →Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →