Research notes and updates from the team.
The SST forecast shows neutral to very slightly coolish ENSO conditions for Sep-Nov, remaining approximately steady through the fourth forecast season of Dec-Feb. The subtropical North Pacific SST and the SST in some other extratropical regions are predicted to be above average during all four forecast seasons.
Read more →Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →The SST forecast shows warmish but neutral ENSO conditions for Aug-Oct, remaining approximately steady through the fourth forecast season of Nov-Jan. The subtropical North Pacific SST is predicted to be well above average during all four forecast seasons. A somewhat positive Indian Ocean Dipole is predicted to continue throughout the four forecast seasons, weakening slightly by the fourth period.
Read more →The SST forecast shows warmish but neutral ENSO conditions for Jul-Sep, remaining approximately steady through the fourth forecast season of Sep-Nov. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is predicted to persist throughout the four forecast seasons, although the below-average SST off the west Indonesia coast weakens over the coming months.
Read more →Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.
Read more →