Discussions

Research notes and updates from the team.

December 2014 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region has been at the weak El Niño level from mid-October to the present, and even reached the borderline of moderate El Niño for a single week at the end of November. For November the average NINO3.4 SST anomaly was 0.85 C, indicative of weak Niño conditions, and for Aug-Oct it was 0.60 C.

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November 2014 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region has hovered near or just below the threshold of the level required for El Niño level, beginning in early November the weekly SST anomalies have started exceeded it. For October the average NINO3.4 SST anomaly was 0.49 C, indicative of borderline Niño conditions, and for Aug-Oct it was 0.38 C.

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October 2014 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region in recent weeks has slightly retreated from a borderline El Niño level, after having briefly reached that level around mid-September. For September the average NINO3.4 SST anomaly was 0.45 C, indicative of warm but still neutral conditions, and for Jul-Sep it was 0.28 C.

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September 2014 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region in recent weeks has returned to a borderline El Niño level, after having retreated to neutral readings during July and August. For August the NINO3.4 SST anomaly was 0.20 C, indicative of neutral conditions, and for Jun-Aug it was 0.28 C.

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August 2014 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly in the Nino3.4 region in recent weeks retreated from near the borderline of neutral and El Niño where it had been in May and June. For July the Nino3.4 SST anomaly was 0.18 C, indicative of neutral conditions, and for May-July it was 0.37 C.

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July 2014 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly in the Nino3.4 region in recent weeks has been near the borderline of neutral and El Nino during the mid-June to mid-July period, 2014. For June the Nino3.4 SST anomaly was 0.46 C, indicative of neutral conditions but very close to the borderline of El Nino, and for April-June it was 0.39 C.

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