Discussions

Research notes and updates from the team.

June 2014 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly in the Nino3.4 region in recent weeks has been near the borderline of neutral and El Nino during the mid-May to mid-June period, 2014. For May the Nino3.4 SST anomaly was 0.45 C, indicative of neutral conditions but very close to the borderline of El Nino, and for Mar-May it was 0.16 C.

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May 2014 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly in the Nino3.4 region in recent weeks has been in the neutral range but rising during the mid-April to mid-May period, 2014. For April the Nino3.4 SST anomaly was 0.24 C, indicative of neutral conditions, and for Feb-Apr it was -0.18 C.

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April 2014 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly in the Nino3.4 region in recent weeks has been in the neutral range but rising during the mid-March to mid-April period, 2014. For March the Nino3.4 SST anomaly was -0.22 C, indicative of neutral conditions, and for Jan-Mar it was -0.43 C.

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March 2014 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly in the Nino3.4 region in recent weeks has been near the borderline between neutral and weak Niña, through mid-March 2014. For February 2014 the Nino3.4 SST anomaly was -0.55 C, indicative of weak La Niña conditions, and for December-February it was -0.37 C.

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February 2014 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly in the Nino3.4 region in recent weeks has been near the borderline between neutral and weak Niña, through mid-February 2014. For January 2014 the Nino3.4 SST anomaly was -0.51 C, indicative of weak La Niña conditions, and for November-January it was -0.18 C.

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January 2014 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly in the Nino3.4 region has been in the neutral range lately, through mid-January 2014. For December 2013 the Nino3.4 SST anomaly was -0.04 C, indicative of neutral ENSO conditions, and for October-December it was -0.12 C. The IRI's definition of El Niño, like NOAA/Climate Prediction Center's, requires that the SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region (5S-5N; 170W-120W) exceed 0.5 C.

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