Category: ENSO Forecast

Research notes and updates from the team.

April 2014 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly in the Nino3.4 region in recent weeks has been in the neutral range but rising during the mid-March to mid-April period, 2014. For March the Nino3.4 SST anomaly was -0.22 C, indicative of neutral conditions, and for Jan-Mar it was -0.43 C.

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March 2014 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly in the Nino3.4 region in recent weeks has been near the borderline between neutral and weak Niña, through mid-March 2014. For February 2014 the Nino3.4 SST anomaly was -0.55 C, indicative of weak La Niña conditions, and for December-February it was -0.37 C.

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February 2014 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly in the Nino3.4 region in recent weeks has been near the borderline between neutral and weak Niña, through mid-February 2014. For January 2014 the Nino3.4 SST anomaly was -0.51 C, indicative of weak La Niña conditions, and for November-January it was -0.18 C.

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January 2014 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly in the Nino3.4 region has been in the neutral range lately, through mid-January 2014. For December 2013 the Nino3.4 SST anomaly was -0.04 C, indicative of neutral ENSO conditions, and for October-December it was -0.12 C. The IRI's definition of El Niño, like NOAA/Climate Prediction Center's, requires that the SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region (5S-5N; 170W-120W) exceed 0.5 C.

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December 2013 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly in the Nino3.4 region has been in the neutral range lately, through mid-December 2013. For November 2013 the Nino3.4 SST anomaly was 0.01 C, indicative of neutral ENSO conditions, and for September-November it was -0.13 C. The IRI's definition of El Niño, like NOAA/Climate Prediction Center's, requires that the SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region (5S-5N; 170W-120W) exceed 0.5 C.

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November 2013 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly in the Nino3.4 region has been in the neutral range lately, through mid-November 2013. For October 2013 the Nino3.4 SST anomaly was -0.28 C, indicative of neutral ENSO conditions, and for August-October it was -0.23 C. The IRI's definition of El Niño, like NOAA/Climate Prediction Center's, requires that the SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region (5S-5N; 170W-120W) exceed 0.5 C.

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