Category: ENSO Forecast

Research notes and updates from the team.

October 2022 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly for NINO3.4 during the Jun-Aug season was -0.76 °C, and for the month of August it was -0.98 °C. The most recent weekly (14 Sep 2022) anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was -0.9 °C, indicating persistent weak La Niña conditions. The IRI’s definition of El Niño, like NOAA/Climate Prediction Center’s, requires that the SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region (5S-5N; 170W-120W) exceed 0.5 °C.

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September 2022 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly for NINO3.4 during the Jun-Aug season was -0.76 °C, and for the month of August it was -0.98 °C. The most recent weekly (14 Sep 2022) anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was -0.9 °C, indicating persistent weak La Niña conditions. The IRI’s definition of El Niño, like NOAA/Climate Prediction Center’s, requires that the SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region (5S-5N; 170W-120W) exceed 0.5 °C.

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August 2022 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly for NINO3.4 during the May-June-July season was -0.89 °C, and for the month of July it was -0.78 °C. The most recent weekly (10 Aug 2022) anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was -1.1 °C, indicating a strengthening of ongoing La Niña conditions.

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July 2022 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly for NINO3.4 during the Apr-Jun season was -0.89 °C, and for the month of June it was -0.68 °C. The most recent weekly (13 Jul 2022) anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was -0.6 °C, indicating borderline La Niña conditions. The IRI’s definition of El Niño, like NOAA/Climate Prediction Center’s, requires that the SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region (5S-5N; 170W-120W) exceed 0.5 °C.

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June 2022 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly for NINO3.4 during the Mar-May season was -0.96 °C, and for the month of May it was -1.05 °C. The most recent weekly (08 Jun 2022) anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was -0.7 °C, suggesting a weakening of the current La Niña event.

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May 2022 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly for NINO3.4 during the Feb-Apr season was -0.85 C, and for the month of April it was -0.95 C. The most recent weekly (11 May 2022) anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was -1.1 C, indicating a continuation of the current La Niña event.

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