Research notes and updates from the team.
The SST forecast shows warm-neutral ENSO conditions in the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean for March and April, cooling to average for May and June, and cooling further to a borderline or weak La Nina level by July and August.
Read more →The SST forecast shows borderline weak El Nino conditions, with Nino3.4 SST near 0.5ºC for January and early February, but the SST is expected to slowly return to neutral between February and the early summer.
Read more →The SST forecast shows mainly neutral ENSO conditions (-0.5 to 0.5ºC in the Nino3.4 SST index) for Feb-Apr through May-Jul, starting from near-El Nino levels for Feb-Apr and progressively cooling to weak La Nina conditions by May-Jul.
Read more →The SST forecast shows neutral ENSO conditions (-0.5 to 0.5ºC in the Nino3.4 SST index) for Jan-Mar through Apr-Jun. Near-average SST is forecast for the eastern tropical Pacific, cooling to slightly below average by Apr-Jun; above-average SST is forecast for the central and west-central tropical Pacific for Jan-Mar and Feb-Apr, cooling toward average by Apr-Jun.
Read more →The SST forecast shows neutral ENSO conditions (-0.5 to 0.5ºC in the Nino3.4 SST index) for Dec-Feb through Mar-May. Near-average SST is forecast for the eastern tropical Pacific, progressively cooling to below average by Mar-May; above-average SST is forecast for the central and west-central tropical Pacific, cooling to average by Mar-May.
Read more →The SST forecast shows very slightly warmish, but neutral ENSO conditions (-0.5 to 0.5ºC in the Nino3.4 SST index) for Nov-Jan through Feb-Apr. Near-average or very slightly below-average SST is forecast for the eastern tropical Pacific, while above-average SST is forecast for the west-central and western tropical Pacific for all four forecast seasons.
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