Research notes and updates from the team.
The SST forecast shows slightly warmish, but neutral ENSO conditions (-0.5 to 0.5ºC in the Nino3.4 SST index) for Oct-Dec through Jan-Mar. Slightly below-average SST is forecast for the eastern tropical Pacific, while above-average SST is forecast for the central and much of the western tropical Pacific for all four forecast seasons.
Read more →The SST forecast shows neutral ENSO conditions (-0.5 to 0.5ºC in the Nino3.4 SST index) for Sep-Nov through Dec-Feb. Below-average SST is forecast for the eastern tropical Pacific, while above-average SST is forecast for the central and west-central tropical Pacific for all four forecast seasons.
Read more →The SST forecast shows neutral ENSO conditions (-0.5 to 0.5ºC in the Nino3.4 SST index) for Aug-Oct through Nov-Jan. Below-average SST is forecast for the eastern tropical Pacific, while above-average SST is forecast for the west-central and western tropical Pacific, for Aug-Oct through Oct-Dec.
Read more →The SST forecast shows weak El Nino conditions (0.5 - 1.0ºC for the Nino3.4 SST index) for Jul-Sep through Oct-Dec. Much of the extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SSTs, as well as the SSTs in the western Indian Ocean and parts of the middle and high latitude south Pacific, are predicted to be above-average during most of the four forecast seasons.
Read more →The SST forecast shows weak El Nino conditions (0.5 - 1.0ºC for the Nino3.4 SST index) for Jun-Aug through Sep-Nov, very slowly weakening during the forecast period.
Read more →The SST forecast shows weak to moderate El Nino conditions (approximately 1.0ºC for the Nino3.4 SST index) for May-Jul, declining to weak conditions (0.5 - 1.0ºC) from Jun-Aug through Aug-Oct.
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