September 2020 Climate Forecast Discussion
The SST forecast is for weak-to-moderate La Niña conditions to continue in the central and eastern tropical Pacific through JFM, accompanied by warm SSTs in the North Pacific and North Atlantic.
Read more →Category: Seasonal Forecast
Research notes and updates from the team.
August 2020 Climate Forecast Discussion
The SST forecast indicates weak-moderate La Niña conditions in the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean for all four forecast periods of Sep-Nov through Dec-Feb, with a slight weakening in Dec-Feb.
Read more →July 2020 Climate Forecast Discussion
An enhanced probability for below-normal precipitation is forecast in part of Chile and Argentina for Aug-Oct, Sep-Nov, and Oct-Dec. Below-normal is also favored over parts of eastern/southern Africa for all four forecast seasons (Aug-Oct through Nov-Jan). In the later seasons (Oct-Dec and Nov-Jan), the tendency toward dryer than normal conditions reaches parts of the southern U.S.
Read more →June 2020 Climate Forecast Discussion
The SST forecast shows weak La Niña conditions in the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean for all of the four forecast periods of Jul-Sep through Oct-Dec. Through the forecast periods, the eastern three-quarters of the tropical Pacific shows negative anomalies while the far west Pacific shows positive anomalies with the contrast becoming stronger following Jul-Sep.
Read more →May 2020 Climate Forecast Discussion
The SST forecast shows neutral ENSO conditions in the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean for Jun-Aug, with a cooling tendency during those months as well as later on, and thus reaching a borderline La Nina level by Sep-Nov. Through the forecast periods, the eastern one-third of the tropical Pacific is forecast to develop a stronger negative anomaly than the central Pacific.
Read more →April 2020 Climate Forecast Discussion
The SST forecast shows warm-neutral ENSO conditions in the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean for May, cooling to average for June and July, and cooling further to a borderline La Nina level by Aug-Oct.
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