Category: Seasonal Forecast

Research notes and updates from the team.

March 2021 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

The sea surface temperature SST forecast is for mild La Nina conditions to continue into boreal spring. SST forecasts in the Atlantic Ocean indicate that the South Tropical Atlantic is likely to remain anomalously cool through boreal spring, while the North Tropical Atlantic is likely to be warmer than normal through boreal summer.

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February 2021 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

The sea surface temperature (SST) forecast forecast is for La Nina conditions to continue into the spring, and then likely transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions. The model predictions show a broad range of outcomes; however, and some models indicate that La Nina conditions will re-emerge in the second half of the year.

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January 2021 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

The sea surface temperature (SST) forecast is for La Nina conditions to continue through winter and transition to ENSO-neutral conditions in late spring. Strong SST anomalies are absent from the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans, although weakly warm SSTs are forecast by most models to persist in the tropical North Atlantic.

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December 2020 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

The SST forecast is for La Nina conditions to continue through boreal winter, weakening through the spring and early summer. The eastern Indian Ocean is presently warm but is forecast to relax towards climatological temperatures in the spring.

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November 2020 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

The SST forecast is for moderate to strong La Nina conditions to continue through winter, likely weakening during the spring but persisting as a weak La Nina. Warm SSTs in the North and South Pacific, southeast Indian Ocean, and the North and South Atlantic are forecast to persist through the spring while the tropical Atlantic Ocean remains near normal.

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October 2020 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

The SST forecast is for moderate La Niña conditions to persist through the fall and early winter, likely weakening as the spring progresses. Warm SSTs in the North Pacific and North Atlantic are forecast to persist through the spring while the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans remain near normal.

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