Research notes and updates from the team.
The SST forecast shows weak El Nino conditions developing by the initial Oct-Dec season, most likely remaining at weak strength (>0.5C and <1.0C for the Nino3.4 index) through Jan-Mar, with a smaller chance for moderate strength (>1.0C).
Read more →The SST forecast shows weak El Nino conditions developing for the initial Sep-Nov season, intensifying to moderate strength (>1.0C in the Nino3.4 region) by Nov-Jan and Dec-Feb.
Read more →The SST forecast shows weak El Nino conditions developing for the initial Aug-Oct season, intensifying to moderate strength (>1.0C in the Nino3.4 region) by Oct-Dec and Nov-Jan. Much of the subtropical and extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SST, as well as the SST in much of the mid-latitude Southern Hemisphere, are predicted to be above-average during all four forecast seasons.
Read more →The SST forecast shows weak El Nino conditions developing for the initial Jul-Sep season, slowly intensifying to moderate strength (>1.0C in the Nino3.4 region) by Oct-Dec. Much of the subtropical and extratropical North Atlantic, and the North Pacific SST, as well as the SST in much of the mid-latitude Southern Hemisphere, are predicted to be above average during all four forecast seasons.
Read more →The SST forecast shows neutral ENSO conditions for the initial Jun-Aug and Jul-Sep seasons, then transitioning to warmer conditions, reaching a borderline or weak El Nino level by Sep-Nov. The remnants of the ended La Nina are expected to persist weakly just south of the equator during the Jun-Aug and Jul-Sep seasons.
Read more →The SST forecast shows neutral ENSO conditions for the initial May-Jul season, transitioning to progressively warmer conditions with increasing lead time, reaching a borderline or weak El Nino level by Aug-Oct.
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