Research notes and updates from the team.
In January 2022, La Niña conditions continued with the sea surface temperatures (SST) in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean remaining cooler than average. The early February CPC/IRI ENSO forecast calls for a continuation of the weak La Niña until Northern Hemisphere spring, with moderate probability (77% chance during Mar-May 2022).
Read more →The December SST anomaly for NINO3.4 region (5S-5N; 170W-120W) was -1.05 C, and for Oct-Dec season it was -0.92, which shows weak La Niña. The IRI’s definition of a weak La Niña, like NOAA/Climate Prediction Center’s, requires that the SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region be between -0.5 C and -1.0 C.
Read more →It is with great sadness that we share the news that Dr. Lisa Goddard died on January 13 after a long battle with cancer. Lisa had been at IRI since its founding, and served as Director from 2012-2020.
Read more →La Niña conditions are well established, with Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) well below average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The November SST anomaly for NINO3.4 region (5S-5N; 170W-120W) was -0.89 C, and for Sep-Nov season it was -0.80.
Read more →Note: The IRI seasonal forecasts of precipitation and temperature issued this month are based on the NCEP-CFSv2, CanSIPS-IC3, COLA-RSMAS-CCSM4, and GFDL-SPEAR models. Starting from Dec 2021, a new CanSIPS-IC3 model replacing the CanSIPSv2 model has been used in NMME seasonal forecasts. The climatological base period for normal is 1991-2020.
Read more →Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) remain well below average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The October SST anomaly for NINO3.4 region (5S-5N; 170W-120W) was -0.83 C, and for Aug-Oct season it was -0.52, which is just within the weak La Niña range.
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