Research notes and updates from the team.
The SST forecast shows weak La Nina conditions for Oct-Dec through Jan-Mar, weakening slightly for Jan-Mar. The subtropical North Pacific SST and the SST in many of the other extratropical regions are predicted to be above average during all four forecast seasons. A slightly positive Indian Ocean Dipole is predicted for Oct-Dec through Dec-Feb, weakening for the later seasons.
Read more →The SST forecast shows neutral to very slightly coolish ENSO conditions for Sep-Nov, remaining approximately steady through the fourth forecast season of Dec-Feb. The subtropical North Pacific SST and the SST in some other extratropical regions are predicted to be above average during all four forecast seasons.
Read more →The SST forecast shows warmish but neutral ENSO conditions for Aug-Oct, remaining approximately steady through the fourth forecast season of Nov-Jan. The subtropical North Pacific SST is predicted to be well above average during all four forecast seasons. A somewhat positive Indian Ocean Dipole is predicted to continue throughout the four forecast seasons, weakening slightly by the fourth period.
Read more →The SST forecast shows warmish but neutral ENSO conditions for Jul-Sep, remaining approximately steady through the fourth forecast season of Sep-Nov. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is predicted to persist throughout the four forecast seasons, although the below-average SST off the west Indonesia coast weakens over the coming months.
Read more →The SST forecast shows development of weak El Niño conditions by Jun-Aug, growing slightly to reach weak/moderate strength by the fourth forecast season of Sep-Nov. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole exists throughout the four forecast seasons, becoming slightly stronger by the fourth season. The tropical Atlantic maintains near to slightly above average SST during all four seasons.
Read more →The SST forecast shows El Niño development by Jul-Sep, reaching moderate strength by the fourth and final running forecast season of Aug-Oct. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole exists throughout the four forecast seasons, and becomes somewhat stronger by the fourth season. The tropical Atlantic maintains near to slightly above average SST during all four seasons.
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